While in the state of youth, which is characterized by stupidity and foolishness and bad decisions among other things, I gambled quite a bit. Poker was my favorite past time while craps was my actual favorite, especially when I wanted to give my money away. There are six sides on a die and when you put two together you get thirty six different permutations. Rolling two 1’s or “snake eyes” has a 1 in 36 chance while rolling a 7 you have a 1 in 6 chance. You should roll a 7 six times as often as a 2. Here is a good website for statistics that covers the way to calculate odds on dice.
Snake eyes, where both dice are a 1, is calculated simply by multiplying the odds of the first die and by the odds of the second. There are six numbers on a die and one of those numbers is a 1 so there is a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 1. If you roll a 1 there is only 1 number on the second die that is also a 1. This can be expressed this way:
(1/6)(1/6) = 1/36
The number you are most likely to roll is a 7. All 6 numbers on the first die are able to make a 7 with one number on the second. To roll a seven we can roll any number on the first die and then must match one number on the second as expressed like this:
(6/6)(1/6) = 6/36 or 1/6. This can also be said to have 6 to 1 odds.
Let’s look at another, how about to roll a 4 or a 10? They have equal chance to be made. The first die can have 3 different options and that is is 3/6, why? Because the first die can contain a 1, 2, or 3 but no others to make a 4 or it can have 4, 5, or 6 and no others to make a 10. The second die must match but can only be 1 of the 6 possibles. So, if a 1 is rolled a 3 must be rolled on the other. If a 2 is rolled a 2 on the other. A 3 is rolled a 1 on the other. And a 10 the same, there are 3 ways to start as a 4, 5 or 6 and the matching numbers that correspond on the second die.
(3/6)(1/6) = 3/36 or 12 to 1.
A 5 or a 9?
(4/6)(1/6) = 4/36 or 9 to 1.
A 6 or an 8? A 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 can be rolled on the first die to make a 6 and likewise a 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 for an 8
(5/6)(1/6) = 5/36 or 7.2 to 1.
A 7 is:
(6/6)(1/6) = 6/36 or 6 to 1.
If we look at rolling a 10 or 4 compared to rolling a 7 it is 2 to 1 odds, meaning we will roll a 7 twice as often as a 4 or a 10. A 7 has 6 to 1 odds while a 4 has 12 to 1 odds. You are twice as likely to roll a 7 as you are a 4. And in craps you get 2 to 1 odds for that very thing. It will make sense if you bear with me.
The game is simple enough. Let’s start with a fresh game where nothing has been bet yet. The first shooter gets a pair of dice. We must first establish the point. The point can be these numbers and no others: 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 and a 10. A 2, 3 or 12 is craps and a 7 or 11 are winners. That is all the numbers there are. There are no others. Let’s say we bet $25 and we want to bet with the shooter. We then place our bet on the pass line. If the shooter rolls a 2, 3, 12, all those playing the pass line lose their money. He rolls a 7 or 11 all players playing the pass line win and in our case we would win $25. If he rolls a point, let’s say a 4, then the point is now 4. Now, we can place odds behind our initial $25 bet that will pay us 2 to 1 which are true odds. Many casinos limit the odds action to 2x or maybe 10x or some variation. Let’s say it’s 10x. We want to maximize odds so we place $250 odds behind our pass line bet so 10x is the amount of the original pass line bet times 10 or $250. After the point is established the number 7 becomes bad for us and 4 becomes good; before the point is established 7 is good but after the point 7 becomes bad. Since the point is 4 we are at a 2 to 1 disadvantage but we will win 2 to 1 or $500 on our odds bet. Remember there are 3 ways to make a 4 but 6 ways to make a 6 so it is literally 2 to 1 we roll a 7 before a 4. If the shooter rolls a 4 then we win $525 ($25 + $25, $250 + $500) and our initial $275 is now $800. Not bad. This is why craps is one of the best games to play because if you know how to play you can get the odds of losing closer to an even affair. However, most casinos limit the amount of odds you can play and enforce a higher limit so that most cannot withstand the ebb and flow of the game.
But enough about craps, I could go on about it but won’t, shant.
In poker there is a theory that different styles can look like rock, paper, scissors. The different types of styles are aggressive, trapper and the rock to name a few. A trapper can beat an aggressive person but not the rock. The rock can beat the trapper but not the aggressive and so on. One idea taken from both studying poker and rock, paper, scissors is that inexperienced players will play predictably. In poker, they will call more often and tend not to raise with marginal hands; they will not bluff on the turn or the river but bet only good hands; they don’t bet for value marginal hands so when they do bet they have something good and since these are predictable we can then become paper and fold when they bet, bet decent hands for value and don’t try to bluff catch but instead fold the turn and the river. We modify our personality to meet the predictable personality of our opponent. By analyzing a person’s playing style by gathering information such as did they bluff on the river or are they a “calling station” will help us to understand how to modify our behavior.
If we do not do that we will lose more than we win since all people will catch the same cards over time.
In life we can be different types of people. Some people are always aggressive and domineering and some governments as well. How does one beat them? If an aggressive person is characterized by scissors then we must be a rock or if they are a rock we must be paper. We cannot cling to our own vision of who we are but must instead adapt to meet an ever changing world. One might not want to adapt but instead protest “why should I change?”. Well, you must because you have no power to do otherwise. Those with power don’t need to change but in fact want to maintain the status quo. We live in a world where those with power seek those who will serve them and we have paid actors pretending to be something they’re not, decision makers, while rigging the game for the capitalists all with the intention of destroying this system so they can install communism and with communism they can take God from us by destroying the visible church. They have a good track record of doing this, see Mexico, Russia, China, Romania, Poland, etc. for examples on the probability of this happening here (6/6)(6/6) = 1 in 1.
This is what I learned from studying poker, rock, paper, scissors and craps.
Good day sir.
P.S. - Have you ever wondered how to count cards? You have? Oh, but you don’t know how. It’s actually very easy. Very easy indeed. I would share that with you now but I didn’t add it in the title of this blog so I can’t, shant.
P.P.S - The lottery is rigged. Don’t play it.
P.P.P.S - I don’t condone gambling but enjoy the theory behind it and yes, I did use to gamble, and yes, I have made others cry when playing just a fun little home game of poker, so sorry about that.